The Progress Report: Interest Rates of Social Change

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Zachary Karabell: What could go right? I’m Zachary Karabell, the founder of The Progress Network, joined by my co host, the executive director of The Progress Network, Emma Varvaloucas, coming to you live and in person from Athens, Greece. I am in New York city. So we are at least a semi global, albeit Western hemisphere centric set of voices.

And this is our adjunct podcast to our interview podcast. where we do a progress report and look at the news of the week or the month that you may have missed in the fray of otherwise rather negative news. As the world’s headlines are turned, I suppose appropriately so, to the continuing violence and war in the Middle East, it is easy enough to overlook lots of other stuff, just like the American news is tuned reasonably enough, I suppose, to the upcoming presidential election.

Which does not tend to be filled with, Woohoo, things are going just great. So we try to look at what’s going on in the world and scour the planet for stories of uplift or stories of things that are improving the world as we know it, or at least have some chance of doing so. And that is easy to overlook, even if they are quote unquote news.

And as you all know, and as Emma has written about so eloquently, the news is rarely good news. It is usually bad news because that is usually the news. So we are trying to be an antidote. And I think. Kicking off this particular week is a nod to the Federal Reserve of the United States, which recently voted to lower short term interest rates by 50 basis points, i.e. one half of 1%. Which may not seem a lot in the greater scheme of things, and actually isn’t a lot in the greater scheme of things, but it is something in the greater scheme of things, and it does end a two plus year period of very tight money, i.e. the cost of money has been higher because of the fears of inflation have also been higher, because the reality of inflation from late 2021 until late 2023 was also quite acute, and as I wrote in my edgy optimist column this week, We are at the end of an inflationary era.

Now, before you throw your shoes at a screen, if you’re watching this on YouTube, or I suppose at yourself, if you’re listening to this as a podcast, please bear in mind that the end of inflation does not mean, does not mean that prices are therefore going to come down. From their inflationary peak in 2022 and 2023, it just means that they will cease to rise as quickly.

There is still some inflation, about 2%, which is what it was for most of the time between 2010 and 2020, a la the pandemic. So prices are not going to stop being high. And if your major concern legitimately is that the price of food and fuel and housing and shelter and education has gone up a lot since 2021, And is there still in 2024?

That’s a legit concern, but it doesn’t mean that inflation per se as a statistic that we use to measure the speed and rate at which prices are changing, that has come to an end after a two year period that most of us had not experienced since the 1970s. And if you weren’t alive then, most Americans haven’t experienced period.

So it came as a bit of a shock to the system to have this inflationary spike. And again, to say that that inflationary spike is over and that the Fed is recognizing it is not to say that prices don’t remain untenably high, or I suppose the flip side, that incomes and wages don’t remain untenably low for too many people in too many parts of the country.

And I do think there should be a nod in the direction of the Fed. We live in a world where there’s a lot of legit critique of government, particularly elected politicians being venal. We’re greedy, or narcissistic, or power hungry, or not power hungry enough, or whatever the hell it is that we criticize politicians for.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors and their regional bank presidents, at least, is staffed, or it would appear to be, by genuine technocrats who are, who see their mandate really as guarding the economy and do so I think honorably and dispassionately and not necessarily quote unquote ambitiously, although they’re all probably ambitious in their way or they wouldn’t have been appointed to their positions.

That does not mean that they get it right and in fact, as I put it, Have frequently written over the years. They often get it pretty spectacularly wrong and they should be held accountable for getting it pretty spectacularly wrong, but they don’t get it spectacularly wrong for the wrong reasons.

Although I suppose we could have a debate about whether or not the Fed’s self perception as the guardian of the economy at all times, that actually may be a wrong reason. But again, it’s not venal. It’s not petty. It’s not narcissistic. It may be arrogant and it may be wrong. And I think we should continue to debate that.

But at least it’s good that there are people in government and institutions of government that see their mandate really as serving the greater good of society and tend to hew to that. And I think it’s good to push back and say, hey, wait a minute, let’s not be so arrogant as to assume that one institution or any institution can guard and monitor and control much greater forces and that trying to do so can also lead to unintendedly negative effects.

But for the time being, Inflation as a thing seems to be over. High interest rates seem to be waning and all of that should be pretty good for whatever this thing is that we call the economy. So on that particular note, Ms. Varvaloucas. What do you have for us today?

Emma Varvaloucas: Well, one thing I would add to that too, I mean, I’m sure people already know this, but in case you don’t, that does mean that we’re going to have probably lower mortgage rates, lower auto loan rates, lower everything of that nature, right?

Anything that has to do with loans and more cuts are coming. They’re forecasting 1.5 percentage points by the end of next year, I believe. So, you know, Good time to start thinking about buying a home again, car, refinancing,

Zachary Karabell: a mortgage if you have one,

Emma Varvaloucas: refinancing, exactly, 

Zachary Karabell: not a good time to rack up credit card debt, because it’s never a good time to rack up credit card debt, because credit cards have an interest rate that just makes absolutely no sense.

I mean, it makes a lot of sense for the credit card companies, but I mean, what are credit card interest rates now are like between 11 and 19%. I mean, that’s just ridiculous relative to, a mortgage rate or the cost of capital. So for all those, you know, who are wondering it might marginally lower your credit card rate, but basically credit card debt is, except for a very, very, very short amount of time, rarely a good thing to carry.

Emma Varvaloucas: But we are not certified to give financial advice. So I guess, consider that, just thoughts.

Zachary Karabell: Consider that just, just one guy’s opinion and take it. As you will and go spend whatever you want, you know, wherever you want, on whatever you want.

Emma Varvaloucas: Yeah. So moving, moving beyond that. Very good, not advice, advice.

I’m going to stay on the U.S. for a brief moment to announce the very exciting news that Americans can now renew their passports online. Seems like such a small thing and yet, I’m very excited by it personally.

Zachary Karabell: You don’t have to go to the post office, you don’t have to go to a passport office, you don’t have to do the whole rigmarole.

Emma Varvaloucas: The turnaround times remain a bit of an issue. 

Zachary Karabell: I think you can track them now too. I think the U.S. government has finally let you track where your passport renewal is in the queue, or like where your passport actually is.

Emma Varvaloucas: Okay, that’s an improvement. I mentioned on the podcast before that, um, now almost 50 percent of Americans have passports, so this is not like a small cadre of people that this matters to.

This is actually like a huge chunk of the American population and, I’d love to see it.

Zachary Karabell: Wait, does this mean that you actually can keep your passport while it’s being renewed? That was always one of the big pains has been one of the big pains of renewing your passport is you have to be passportless for X amount of time.

Emma Varvaloucas: I, you know, I didn’t check. I believe that you would, because I think it’s probably like they sent you the new one and you mail back the old one, but I don’t know. There are exceptions. I do know that there are exceptions to this. So, last bit of U.S. based news, this one is health focused. So the FDA, Federal Drug Food and Drug Administration, what am I talking about, the FDA has just approved the first at home flu vaccine.

The first ever flu vaccine that is a nasal spray. It’s from AstraZeneca. It’s going to be available in the fall of 2025 and it is suitable for adults under 50 and children older than two. So, if you’re in that bracket, you can just buy this and get yourself all jacked up to fight the flu at home without a needle, which I think is, I’m not a fan of needles myself. I am pretty excited about this. 

Zachary Karabell: I suppose to all those  people out there who just like love needles. They’re just like,

Emma Varvaloucas: Well, listen, there are people that don’t mind needles and there are people who mind needles. And I am definitely, definitely in the latter category. Unlike you brave people that can get your blood drawn and get vaccines and all that stuff. I can’t use needles.

Zachary Karabell: You can’t, no, I’m sorry. I don’t know what the under 50 thing is.

Emma Varvaloucas: I think it has to do probably with the intensity, like you need to have higher intensity of the dose if you’re over 50 because you’re more at risk from the flu. Um, same thing with kids under 2, they have to be, they have to have a smaller amount, so I think the nasal spray, they can control the dose less effectively, and it doesn’t matter if you’re between 3 and 49, I suppose, but they want to be careful with the more vulnerable populations.

Sorry, Zachary, that you’re a more vulnerable population.

Zachary Karabell: I could just take two. Or one, I don’t know, half? I don’t know. Can’t I self modulate the day? Whatever.

Emma Varvaloucas: Maybe in the future.

Zachary Karabell: Yeah, maybe in the future. 

Emma Varvaloucas: So let’s move on over to England and Wales, which they are doing something interesting. I have never really heard of this.

It doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, but I haven’t heard about this, uh, before. So they are rolling out what is going to be called buffer zones outside of abortion clinics. So they are preventing anyone. Of course it’s, this is aimed at protesters, right? That stand outside abortion clinics and generally.

protest and sometimes harass people. They are not going to be allowed to stand within 150 meters of abortion clinics. And from October 31st, so from Halloween, it’s also going to be against the law to influence, harass, or provoke those using or delivering pregnancy termination services. I

Zachary Karabell: mean, I guess you’ve had some of that with, what do you call it?

Not cease and desist, but I mean, you’ve had some of these, like, you can’t protest right out the door laws in some localities in the United States, like, you can’t just hover at the door, but I don’t think there’s anything nearly as comprehensive as that in the U.S.

Emma Varvaloucas: Interesting conversation going on over there in England and Wales.

And last but not least, moving over to Jordan, who has Just become the first country in the world to eliminate leprosy. Leprosy is still a thing. Still a thing even in the US has like a couple hundred cases every year. Uh, it’s totally treatable now. So it’s like, if you have access to treatment, it’s not a huge deal, shall we say?

Um, but many people do not and, uh, Jordan has gone almost two decades now, uh, with any cases. So, they are the first in the world to achieve that milestone and good for them.

Zachary Karabell: Wow. That’s wild. Would not have guessed Jordan is the first non leprotic country.

Emma Varvaloucas: Yeah. Neither would I. But. But. The world is full of surprises, so.

Zachary Karabell: We have the end of leprosy, the end of harassing women’s reproductive health care providers of any sort in

Emma Varvaloucas: England

Zachary Karabell: and Wales,

Emma Varvaloucas: and

Zachary Karabell: we have a lower interest rate environment, which is pretty much a hodgepodge of things going on in the world.

Emma Varvaloucas: Yes, it’s like what connects all of these things. Couldn’t exactly tell you.

Zachary Karabell: That is our news of the week in a somewhat less than fully serious fashion, but you know what? We don’t have to be that serious about everything all the time. We would invite you to listen to our longer form interview podcast, which conveniently, albeit confusingly, also has the name What Could Go Right?

And we will be back with you with another progress report and another interview. And we welcome your suggestions. We welcome your thoughts. We welcome your ideas of stories that you can point out to us that piqued your curiosity and filled you with a certain amount of hope rather than flooding you with an uncomfortable amount of ennui.

So thank you, Emma. Thank you Podglomerate for producing and thank you to the team at The Progress Network who spends Every waking hour and some sleeping hours looking for all these stories. We’ll be back with you next week.