Volcanoes are erupting in The Philippines, but on-fire Australia received some welcome rain. The Iran war cries have been called off and The Donald’s military powers are about to be hamstrung by the Senate. Meanwhile, his impeachment trial is starting, and we’re all on Twitter for a front-row seat.
What Could Go Right? Miracle Drug
The secret to a happy, successful life
Emma Varvaloucas
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Miracle Drug
What if there were a drug so powerful that it could transform your life? The people who are on it are all educated, rich, happy, healthy, and surrounded by friends. Sometimes things go wrong, but they bounce back in no time. Even better, the drug has no side effects and is free. Would you take it?
I think we all would.
That drug exists, suggests a new study from two Brookings Institution economists, Carol Graham and Redzo Mujcic. It’s hope.
The study, which uses survey data from 25,000 Australians taken over 14 years, is the first large-scale, longitudinal analysis of hope—“the most important positive emotion and socio-emotional trait directly relevant to long-term outcomes,” say the researchers, but “the least studied dimension of well-being.”
Their analysis found that those with the highest levels of self-reported hope were more likely to have a bachelor’s degree, work at a good-paying job, and live in richer neighborhoods, and less likely to experience a serious illness or injury, smoke, or be in poor health. They were also more satisfied with their lives, happier, and less lonely. Hope was even correlated with a smaller chance of landing in jail.
The hopeful take misfortune less hard and recover from it more quickly. Their life satisfaction after events such as divorce, job loss, death of a spouse or child, or bankruptcy dips only slightly before coming back to baseline:
Hope might seem like New Age hogwash. The word sounds thin, even silly. (We consciously avoid it in this newsletter for that very reason.) Many people understand it as the psychological equivalent of the “this is fine” meme.
The researchers, though, point out that hope actually has agentic qualities. “Hope is not just a belief that things will get better . . . but the determination to make them better,” they write.
Hope is somewhat like one actual drug, Tylenol, in that we don’t know exactly how it works—just that it does. But the researchers suggest a few pathways by which hope creates desirable futures: 1) it acts as a psychological buffer in bad times; 2) the belief in a better future gives people an incentive to make decisions that create that future and avoid ones that put it at risk; and 3) it is associated with an internal locus of control, in which people believe that they are able to influence the course of their lives.
Hope has a genetic component, too, and is affected by external factors such as our support networks and opportunities. But it can also be developed at any age. This distinguishes it from other abilities, such as “intelligence,” which is relatively fixed—and, in fact, matters less to life outcomes than softer personality traits such as sociability and perseverance.
A miracle drug forever at our fingertips? Hopeful, indeed.
By the Numbers
48%: Share of new cars sold in China in 2024 that were electric, up from 6% in 2020.
33%: Share of middle-class households in Tajikistan, up from 8% in 2010.
75%: Share of America’s 150 most gun-violent cities where shootings are dropping.
36: Number of polio cases reported so far in 2025. Cases have dropped 99.9% since 1988.
Quick Hits
🌲 Deforestation has slowed in every world region over the past decade, according to a new United Nations report. (That said, it must slow far more to reach climate goals.)
💉 South Africa is poised to roll out the “wonder drug” lenacapavir as early as February, the first African country to do so. A twice-yearly shot of lenacapavir provides nearly perfect protection against HIV.
📉 Teenage pregnancies are plummeting in Brazil, which for decades had one of the highest rates in Latin America. Rates have fallen by 44% and continue to decline.
🐋 One of the planet’s rarest whales is showing encouraging signs of recovery. The North Atlantic right whale population has slowly increased since 2020 after a 10-year decline.
💊 The first hormone-free treatment for menopause symptoms has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. “It works by blocking the brain chemicals responsible for hot flashes and night sweats,” reports CNN.
🚫 The kidnapping of girls for forced marriage is now a crime in Kazakhstan. The new rules prohibit alyp qashu, a long-running tradition in which brides are abducted and subjected to physical and psychological abuse.
🧬 CAR T-cells have eliminated solid tumors in mice. This is the first sign that CAR T therapy, which has transformed the treatment of blood cancers such as leukemia, could also work for solid tumor cancers. Human clinical trials are next.
🦠 Hundreds of millions fewer people are affected by neglected tropical diseases than they were in 1990. A new UN report highlights the progress made—fewer deaths and people requiring intervention as well as a reduced disease burden—against these diseases, which predominantly affect the world’s poor.
🏭 Morocco and South Africa are moving away from coal. Morocco plans to phase out the fuel completely by 2040; South Africa, one of the world’s largest coal producers, is aiming for a 31 percentage point reduction by 2039.
👀 What we’re watching: Domestic violence and sexual assault nonprofits are notching a string of legal wins against the Trump administration in court.
💡 Editor’s pick: Time has named the best inventions of 2025. We think the first item deserves its top billing. (You may notice that a lot of other What Could Go Right? topic favorites made the list, too.)
TPN Member Originals
(Who are our Members? Get to know them.)
- The rot creeping into our minds | NYT ($) | David Brooks
- Yes, things are pretty bad right now | Tangle | Isaac Saul
- State of the World 2025 | GZERO | Ian Bremmer
- Bigots in the tent | The Argument | Matthew Yglesias
- Supreme Court justices threaten the Voting Rights Act—and democracy | WaPo ($) | Theodore R. Johnson
- Yes, money can make you happier | The Atlantic ($) | Arthur C. Brooks
- My students use AI. So what? | The Atlantic ($) | John McWhorter
- Mamdani and the transnational politics of care | Lucid | Ruth Ben-Ghiat
- America’s best bet | No Mercy/No Malice | Scott Galloway
- If Trump does it, does that mean it’s wrong? | The Edgy Optimist | Zachary Karabell
- No ‘Sharia law’ is coming to Texas | The Dispatch | Mustafa Akyol
- Britain’s Prince Harming | Diane Francis | Diane Francis
- Trump’s bid to rule the Americas | The Free Press ($) | Tyler Cowen
- The Trump Doctrine | NonZero | Robert Wright