The Progress Report: With or Without the U.S.

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Zachary: What Could Go Right? I’m Zachary Karabell, the founder of The Progress Network, joined as always by Emma Varvaloucas, the Executive Director of The Progress Network. And this is our shorter form progress report. Our weekly look at news that points in a more positive direction. And we are recording this in a week where there are marines and national guards on the streets of Los Angeles and people are.

Agitated to say the least about whether or not this is a tipping point into something decidedly less good for the United States. So it is definitely not a time where news and stories of the world. Getting better are much in evidence anywhere. And of course that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention to all the things that clearly aren’t getting better.

It simply means that there is a variety of human experiences at any given moment and none of us fully know which human experiences at any given moment are actually gonna be the human experiences that matter to the future relative to the experiences that we are obsessed about in the present. I think the most.

Obvious and glaring example of that or QED of that statement is of course 2020 and COVID, which certainly felt at the time, like it was a tectonically transformative event and clearly has upended and shaped people’s lives, particularly those kids who were not in school and will shape their lives in unclear but definite ways for years into the future.

That being said. That moment in time did not seem to have had quite the effects that we thought for sure it was gonna have. And around this moment in time, five years ago. So that is something even in our recent past to keep in mind in that what we think is going to be absolutely and often negatively determinant for the future may prove to be much more ephemeral and the things that are absolutely determinant to the future, maybe things that we are not paying attention to, which am of Varvaloucas and people at The Progress Network.

Pay attention to inordinately, which makes them just very happy all the time, right? I mean, you’re happy all the time, aren’t you?

Emma: It constantly. I’m in a constant state of joy.

Zachary: You sound like it.

Emma: So actually we have a family joke about that. One, one particular family member once lost their temper and screamed, I am joyous all the time,

Zachary: Damn it.

Emma: Which promptly ended the fight because it was so funny. But no, I actually, I have to say I do think I am in a more balanced mood than many of my American comrades, so it does help.

Not that I have anything particularly helpful to say about the situation in the States right now. Sorry.

Zachary: it’s fine. You, it’s, it is not on you to solve the ills of the United States, and especially since you’re now basking in the warmth of whatever Greek sun you’re currently under.

Emma: Yes. A sunburned sun. I will share one more personal story before we actually move on to why people are here. I was at the bank last week and if anyone knows. Going to a Greek bank is like reaching one of the circles of hell. And I struck a conversation with a woman sitting next to me waiting.

And I would like people to know that despite the chaos going on in the States right now, when she asked me where I was from, because everyone asked me where I’m from. ’cause I hear my accent. And I told her the United States, she said ohs, which is the. The word for state, like nation state, like the government state, not like a, you know, Wisconsin, meaning like, oh, that’s a real functioning government.

So it’s all relative, is what I’m trying to say. I mean, she remains impressed with our function and convenience and efficacy.

Zachary: Wow.

Emma: So,

Zachary: I mean, I find that strangely uplifting.

Emma: I was like, well, compared to this bank experience, I suppose we are quite. Efficacious.

Zachary: Good to know. All right.

Emma: So moving

Zachary: I feel we should just stop with that. We’ll just, you know,

Emma: That was it. That’s all I got.

Zachary: so,

Emma: S that’s just, you know, American Pride him.

Anyway, while there were Marines being deployed onto the streets of Los Angeles, the United Nations was actually having an Ocean conference. Thank you for setting me up for that pun. But they really are having a big OSHA conference this week in Nice France and, the big news coming out of that conference is that they believe that the very first treaty to protect the high waters, AKA international waters, where there’s no one national jurisdiction is going to be ratified.

They need 60 countries to ratify this treaty. They’re currently at 55 and 30 more are in process, so it’s very likely at this point. Point that the treaties gonna come into effect in early 2026, and that’s gonna allow countries that have signed on to the treaties do a few things. Number one, to have a vote on establishing marine protected areas on the high seas.

So there are plenty of countries that have marine protected areas in their own waters. In fact, it’s one of the fastest moving sustainable development goals. That the UN has set to try to meet by 2030. Not that we are close to meaning it, but just one of the fastest moving, just so I’m clear about that.

But there are very few on the high seeds. There are some, but it’s very scattered. So this treaty is going to allow countries to negotiate about setting up new ones, and they are also creating a. Sort of benefit sharing program for any discoveries made on the high seas. So specifically this means like bacteria, sponge, coral that ends up in pharmaceuticals or cosmetics or biotech.

The idea is that those, the benefits of those discoveries are gonna be shared among all of the countries. How exactly that’s gonna work is not entirely clear, but that is the idea. Last but not least, it. Makes the signatories to the treaty conduct an environmental impact assessment for anything that they’re doing on the high seas.

So fishing, deep sea mining, things that are potentially environmentally destructive.

Zachary: So I am, I’m assuming for the sake of argument that the United States. Is not yet a signatory to this.

Emma: You would be correct. The treaty was adopted by the UN in 2023. By the way the jump from 2023 to 2025 for it being mostly, almost, I. Completely ratified is very fast. The last time the UN passed a treaty that had to do with the ocean, it was introduced in 1982 and was ratified in 1994. So, anyway, no, the US was on board, I believe when it was adopted in 2023.

The FAQ about it is still up on government websites in the states, but they have not yet ratified and unclear if they will do so.

Zachary: I would not hold my proverbial breath for the Trump administration ratifying this treaty. But. I think it plays into the story, which I’ve been trying to tell. We’ve been trying to tell that there is actually a wide world out there that does not revolve around the United States and as powerful and important and rich and militarily dominant as the United States is, it is still 330 million people in a global population of about 8 billion with 190 some odd countries in the un and.

They are more and more of those are functional, moving forward, trying to shape the planet in their own collective interest. Whether or not that is either led by or joined by the United States much, which I think will be quite good for the story of humanity, whether or not it is quite good for the story of Americans in the next X number of years.

Emma: Yes. And from the articles that I was reading today about it, I can’t remember now if it was Macron French, president Macron or UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez, but one of them was like, has the United States ratified it? No, I. Do we need, can we afford to wait around for the United States also?

No. It’s the less relevant the United States makes itself, the less relevant the United States makes itself.

Zachary: Yeah. And that, you know, that will have consequences for American soft power. It could have ultimate consequences for the dollar as the global reserve currency, although it’s much easier to ate against the dollar as a global reserve currency than it is to snap your fingers and invent a new one. So I’m not sure that’s in any immediate danger, although it’s definitely true that people are now looking around going, huh?

Maybe it would be better if we had alternatives given the uncertainty emanating from Washington. So, you know, that too is a long-term potential positive for global stability, financial stability, just like this is a treaty as a global positive for global ocean slash sustainable sustainability.

Sustainable sustainability. so there it goes. What else? What’s what else do you have on your magic? Your magic list?

Emma: So this is an a very interesting one that the economist covered. So, as we know, there has been a long standing preference for having boys over girls, particularly in Southeast Asia, and, so much so that like if the condom was basically crunched the numbers and they said that if you were to expect a certain number of girls or boy boys being born in 2000, given the natural sex ratio, right, like biologically what the number that would be natural to have boys versus girls.

There are 1.6 million quote unquote missing girls in 2000. That preference has. Slowly, quickly. It depends on your lens, I suppose, but it has faded away. So the number in 2025 is 200,000, quote unquote, missing girls. Which is fantastic to see. People saying, oh, you know what? I would be just as happy to have a girl as a boy.

And in fact, the Economist then points out that the preference is slowly switching, which I’m not setting up as a positive development. I’m just saying it was part of their article. And it was interesting not to the point where people are a boarding boys, certainly not like that. But there has been just like in polls and surveys, a preference for parents to wanna have girls now.

Zachary: That’s interesting. I mean, that’s certainly a break from every moment in past human history. And now of course with. Can screening techniques where you will kind of be able to pick the sex or know the sex or determine the sex maybe not prior to conception, but right after. That’s gonna raise a whole other, like, are people gonna start massively choosing girls, ever, boys or boys, ever, girls, in a way that would actually be, I guess, long term problematic if you, if it’s skewed really strongly in one direction.

I mean, it’s problematic already in some countries.

Emma: Yeah, that’s essentially what the rest of the piece was speculating about. Like, well, a world which there were more girls than boys might be more peaceful. However, you’re gonna have a lot of marriage problems, number one. Was there a primary concern? And number two was the fact that we’ve talked about on the podcast before about yes.

Men are still overrepresented at the very top of the ladder, but they’re also starting to be overrepresented at the bottom of the ladder. And what that would look like if you just have a bunch of pissed off, boys scrunched up at the bottom of the ladder,

Zachary: I don’t want pissed off boys at the bottom of the ladder. Not, it’s not good for the ladder,

Emma: Knock over the ladder. So I, just to say not presenting the flipping of the preference is necessarily a progress, but certainly the fact that the dramatic preference for boys over girls has faded away. I would definitely call a positive development.

Zachary: I’d agree.

Emma: So let’s do one more. Let’s give the Americans something to be happy about.

Despite all the narratives out there around economic suffering, and for sure, you know, that has real that’s a real thing. That people are feeling. On the other hand in the first three months of 2025, American workers are saving a record high percent of their income into 401k retirement counts at 14.3%, which the Wall Street Journal hopefully points out to us is with in line with common financial advice to save 12 to 15% of your income.

Not that this is financial advice, I am not allowed to give

Zachary: should not be construed as financial advice. We’re not giving financial advice. Nothing we say should be construed as financial advice. All the caveats in case the SEC decides that somehow this is a financial advice show, which it isn’t.

Emma: I don’t think we’re don’t think we’re anywhere near that round, but still good to be clear. But yeah, it’s at a record high. Retirement accounts generally are at record highs and also standard company contributions up from three to 5%. So, great time to save for retirement

Zachary: Apparently, and apparently people are saving for retirement. And you know, we had this incredibly sharp market sell off after, what was it, after the tariff liberation day in early April, markets sold off 2020 5% in the United States, it didn’t do as much in the rest of the world international markets have actually been doing better because.

Part of what we just talked about, that’s a similar phenomenon. International markets have lagged American markets, stock markets for many years. Contrary expectations. And this is the first time where it appears that people are putting their dollars in a like, well, maybe we should not so concentrate our investments in the United States.

That being said, once it became clear that most of these tariffs are not going to be implemented quite as planned, although they still will be implemented in ways that are gonna have unclear and probably. Not constructive economic effects. This is all by way of saying it’s interesting that Trump’s popularity ratings were at their worst when people’s retirement accounts had gone down the most in mid-April and have recovered.

Like if you charted stock market performance against Trump approval ratings they’re not in lockstep, but they’re directionally absolutely in lockstep. So. You know, make of that what you will. But at the end of the day, everyone has always said, look, most things for most people are pocketbook issues.

Yes, they’re cultural issues too, and those matter greatly. But again, if you just looked at the, if you track popularity, it would track what the worth of the individual retirement accounts was from January 21st till today.

Emma: Yeah, people don’t want their personal lives screwed with. I mean, that’s really the, if you really wanna have a national movement about changing something, like the best way to do that is to screw with people’s personal life and finances. So,

Zachary: Note. Note to self.

Emma: Yeah, if you are a Trump supporter, I would recommend to him that he not do that.

And if you are not a Trump supporter, it is oddly enough that might be the best thing that would happen politically.

Zachary: Exactly, which is also its own form of problem. Like you want things to get worse in order for them to get better, but you don’t really want them to get worse. So

Emma: I know a lot of people on the left saying that though. Like I know a lot of like really virulent Trump haters that are like, I just wanna see a burn. And I’m like, okay, this is not, I don’t think

Zachary: That is the hope of radicals and revolutionaries everywhere. The burn baby burn, baby burn. Can in fact disrupt the current order, but the problem, of course, is that it disrupts the current order. All right. On that note, we will not burn, baby burn except for sunburns on Greek beaches or holiday escapes, which will happen regardless in the summer.

People will go and do what they’re gonna do, even in the midst of a world that seems, if not on fire, then smoldering. And as we hopefully will continue to point out, it is also a world full of hope and potential. I know people who have listened to this point probably believe that other people have listened to this point probably roll their eyes and go, oh, please, you know, everything is cocked.

But I do not fully believe that. I think we don’t know, and I think there’s a lot going on that points in a different direction, hence the point of all this Anyway, so thank you, Emma, for. Scouring the universe. Thank you to the Podglomerate for producing. Send us your thoughts at hello at The Progress Network dot org and we will keep hammering these themes even in difficult times.

Emma: Thanks everyone for listening to Zachary for hosting and the glomerate, as always for producing this podcast for us. See you guys next week.