What Could Go Right? 2024: The year of elections

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A record year for elections

The mother of all election years. The Super Bowl of elections. Whatever you want to call it—outlets have gotten creative—2024 will be one for the record books, with more people voting than any other year in history. 

The Atlantic Council, a think tank, counted 83 elections, more than 50 of them national, occurring in 78 countries. That includes seven of the world’s ten most populous countries: India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico are all expected to hold national elections this year. 

Some of these elections are just for show, as in Russia or North Korea, and many of them are likely to be flawed. But even “all-but-certain outcomes can still be worth watching,” as Koh Ewe writes in TIME. Russia’s vote, for instance, may hold signs as to whether the public is growing tired of the war in Ukraine. 

Aside from the heavy hitters above, we’re interested in Mali and Chad, where presidential elections have been promised after years of military rule following coups. If they occur, writes Eric Bazail-Eimil in Politico, “that could encourage other African countries that have also experienced recent coups to move back toward democratic rule, including Niger, Gabon and Sudan. If they don’t, it will set back the yearslong efforts . . . to restore civilian rule.”

Iran is holding parliamentary elections, the country’s first time voting after mass protests in 2022 following the death of a young woman while in police custody. And Taiwan, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Kingdom all have significant elections planned as well. Of the many roundups of this year’s upcoming elections, Foreign Policy’s, here, is the most comprehensive and informative.

This election bonanza is often framed as a “buckle up” story; The World Economic Forum sees geopolitical volatility as the world’s biggest risk this year. Billions of the people going to the polls are certain to have a resounding impact. But just as progress is not guaranteed, neither is regress. Let’s see what 2024 has in store.

Quick hits

• Many are anticipating the US’ own election with bated breath. Fourteen states have passed or are considering legislation, all with bipartisan backing, to regulate deepfakes; Arizona’s top election official is so concerned that he has been running spot-the-deepfake training simulations.
• There is much going on beyond the presumed Biden-Trump matchup, however. A new year means a slew of new laws:
  • Georgia, Indiana, Minnesota, and West Virginia will require financial literacy courses in high school. California is adding media literacy to its K-12 curriculum.
  • Illinois will allow lawsuits from victims of deepfake pornography and cut off state funding for libraries that have banned books for “partisan or doctrinal” reasons.
  • Twenty-two states will raise their minimum wages.
  • New gun laws will come into effect in California, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, Illinois, and Colorado.
  • California is increasing access to drugs such as naxolone that reverse opioid overdoses, and clearing “good samaritans” who administer them from legal liability.
  • Alabamans won’t have to pay tax on any income earned after their 40th hour of work in a week.
  • The New York Times covers all the changes, good and bad—or however you see them—in state law here.

Below in the links section, shipping corridors get greener, drugs for hot flushes win approval, biobots heal wounds, and more.

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What Could Go Right? S5 E12

What is vulnerable narcissism? Is #trauma a trend? And what psychological traits define our times? Psychologist and author Scott Barry Kaufman guides us through an examination of why, what, and who we are, advocating for a holistic understanding of intelligence and creativity. | Listen to the episode

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Progress, Please

(Found good news? Tweet at us @progressntwrk or email.)

Other good stuff in the news 🚢

Energy & Environment:

• Green shipping corridors gaining momentum | BBC
• There was some good climate news in 2023. Really. | MIT Technology Review

Public Health:

• ‘Gamechanging’ drug to prevent hot flushes wins approval in UK | The Guardian
• FDA approves first test to help screen for risk of opioid use disorder | CNN
• Could new malaria drug give babies a better chance of survival? | The Guardian
• Insulin costs now capped for more Americans | Axios

Science & Tech:

• The road ahead reaches a turning point in 2024 | Gates Notes
• Tiny biobots surprise their creators by healing wound | Freethink
• This new bladeless fan is the future of wind turbines | Interesting Engineering

Politics & Policy:

• Porn viewers in EU may have to prove their age | BBC
• The year in gun violence solutions | The Trace
• Cluster munitions: Peru destroys stockpiled weapons | Human Rights Watch

Society & Culture:

• NYC’s Met Museum to return Southeast Asian sculptures allegedly tied to looting | CNN

Economy:

• It’s okay to be optimistic about the economy next year | Vox
• Stocks soared in 2023 | Axios
• Why 2024 could be a year of American optimism | Axios

TPN Member originals 🧠

(Who are our Members? Get to know them.)

• Malthusian intuitions are destroying our politics | Matthew Yglesias 
• Debate: The Enlightenment and its alternatives | Steven Pinker 
• The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a made-up number | Zachary Karabell 
• What went right in 2023 | Zachary Karabell 
• What we learned in 2023 about Gen Z’s mental health crisis | Jonathan Haidt 
• The age of AI and the Great Upshift: 2024 hopes | James Pethokoukis 
• Branko Milanovic on globalization | Yascha Mounk 
• How to be happy growing older | Arthur C. Brooks 
• Empathy is exhausting. There is a better way. | Adam Grant 
• For the New Year: Election-Day countdown | James Fallows 
• Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023 | Ian Bremmer
• Non-member add: Pessimism or progress: What did you see in 2023? | Marshall Ingwerson 

Until Next Time

Improve your 2024 with a look at what was happening around the world 100 years ago. 🏗️

To put 2024 into perspective, here's what was happening around the world in 1924.

From the rise of Stalin to the creation of Surrealism, and a precarious repainting of the Eiffel Tower… pic.twitter.com/oBuOHfp5T9

— The Cultural Tutor (@culturaltutor) January 2, 2024