Volcanoes are erupting in The Philippines, but on-fire Australia received some welcome rain. The Iran war cries have been called off and The Donald’s military powers are about to be hamstrung by the Senate. Meanwhile, his impeachment trial is starting, and we’re all on Twitter for a front-row seat.
What Could Go Right? How to End Extreme Poverty
Escaping poverty isn't rare, but staying out is the real challenge.
Emma Varvaloucas
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How to End Extreme Poverty
One of the first facts you learn when you get into the progress “movement” or “community” is just how much extreme poverty, generally considered as living on less than $2.15 per day, has fallen in recent history: from 44 percent of the global population in 1981 to 9 percent in 2019.
Cool, fantastic, great. But how does that actually occur? Is there a certain personal decision, like moving to the city or becoming an entrepreneur, that guarantees movement up the economic ladder? Does it matter how many kids you have? A certain kind of job?
These questions are the subject of a recent paper called “How Poverty Fell,” coauthored by three economists. One of them is Paul Niehaus, the cofounder of the nonprofit GiveDirectly, which sends cash transfers to poor families worldwide. The authors examine households in China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa across a 15-year period.
There are three main takeaways from the paper, and each rubs up against commonly held narratives about poverty.
First, the “we sacrificed so you could have a better life” narrative. The paper found that when it comes to extreme poverty, children are indeed starting a step up from their parents. But in the meantime, the parents aren’t stuck where they are—they are progressing “in parallel to the improvements that they’re then able to pass along to their kids,” explained Niehaus on the Good on Paper podcast.
Second, that poverty is not a trap, but neither is getting out of it irreversible. There is quite a lot of churn, with households falling into and out of poverty. The overall declining rates are because the number of households climbing out of it edges out the number dropping back in.
Third, there is no one answer to how to do it. Effective pathways are dependent on national context. In the economies that were less developed at the start of the paper’s research period, like China, India, and Indonesia, that meant staying in agricultural work. In the more developed economies of Mexico and South Africa, it was the opposite. In those countries, moving into a wage-based job was an indicator of moving out of poverty, whereas in the other three, self-employment was the better bet.
Among other commonly referenced solutions, like cash transfers (public or private), women entering the workforce, and migration, none played a predominant role in overall data—except in the case of Indonesia, where, interestingly, rural to rural migration worked for many. Having more children also had little dampening effect.
That means, Niehaus says, that “people are making enormous amounts of progress on their own, largely without help.” (Rejoice, champions of economic growth.) What knocks them back are unexpected blows such as illness, droughts, and agricultural shocks.
Despite the fact that 9 percent of the world’s population living in extreme poverty represents hundreds of millions of people, it is within our sightlines to bring that number to statistical zero. Niehaus suggests that the best way to do it would be to provide a safety net against the knock-backs and opportunities to participate in economic growth, which could mean giving people start-up capital for a business, money to move, and so on—whatever makes sense for them.
It’s useful data for the development world, but also for us as charitable givers.
Clarification: In our May 22 edition, we wrote that “so far in 2025, there have been zero mass shootings that have occurred in public.” Mass shootings is defined here as an incident in which four or more victims died. Numbers vary by database cited.
What Could Go Right? S7 E13: Democrats: What the Heck Happened? with Jaime Harrison
What do Democrats do next? Zachary and Emma speak with Jaime Harrison, lawyer and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. Jaime discusses Joe Biden’s 2024 candidacy and Kamala Harris’ nomination, the roles and limitations of the DNC, and the need for the Democratic party to return to a grassroots, community-oriented approach. Jaime also reflects on his Senate loss to Lindsey Graham in 2020. | Listen now
By the Numbers
6%: The share of electricity in Greece that comes from coal, down from about 50 percent in 2014.
1904: The last year in which scientists observed a species of cottontail rabbit native to Mexico, before it was rediscovered in 2024 and taken off the extinction list.
902K: The number of disposable cups a one-woman business that rents reusable cups to marathon organizers has kept from becoming landfill.
68%: The share of China’s overseas investment projects that were wind or solar between 2022 and 2023, the first time foreign renewables investment by the country has overtaken fossil fuels, and up from 13 percent between 2000 and 2021.
50: The number of e-bike lending libraries in the US, where you can rent an e-bike for free, sometimes for as long as a week. They have doubled since 2022.
25K: The estimated number of lives saved between 2019 and 2022 by next-generation mosquito nets.
Quick Hits
📉 The European Commission is set to announce that the EU is projected to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 54 percent by 2030, one percentage point away from the set target of 55 percent. Some doubt exists about whether the EU will actually live up to these projections, and the EU’s emissions are a drop in the global bucket. Still, it’s refreshing to see a region of the world going in the right direction.
📈 In a “golden age” of progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment, half of those diagnosed with cancer in the United Kingdom will now live for 10 years or more, details a new report. That represents a doubling of survival rates since the 1970s.
👮 States from New York to Georgia are offering wellness initiatives, backed by state funding, to police officers and first-responders, who are suffering from burnout due to officer shortages as well as repeated exposure to trauma on the job.
🥵 Two stories from Japan: one of the rare countries with a national-level heat safety policy for workers, Japan has just strengthened penalties for companies that do not adequately protect workers from extreme temperatures. And, a Japanese university is beginning clinical trials of artificial blood in humans, perhaps setting the nation on course to become the first in the world to “deploy artificial blood for real-world medical care.”
🏳️🌈 In April, Lithuania’s top court ruled that limiting partnerships to heterosexual couples was unconstitutional, allowing same-sex couples to seek recognition through the court system. The decision has forced legislators into a debate about how to move forward.
🌾 A team of researchers in China has found a gene in rice that causes it to ruin the crop when overheated. Turning the gene “off,” however, yields a rice that can flourish even in hotter temperatures.
🫁 Begone, clunky machine! Sleep apnea sufferers may soon breathe much easier, with an oral pill that in some cases can completely replace CPAP machines, which are worn to keep the airway open overnight. The pill is heading for FDA submission by 2026.
📍 Science reports that “an emerging sonar technology that scans the seafloor at centimeter-scale resolution is dazzling researchers with its potential.” It has use cases for environmental protection and cleanup, such as one effort to remove ships with bombs and mustard gas that sank during WWII.
📱 Texas has been busy lately. It is set to become the second state, after Utah, to require age verification in app stores, and its House has repealed a 1970s-era ban on gay sex. A bill that would expand the state’s medical marijuana program is awaiting governor signature, as is one that provides a regulatory framework for the government’s use of AI. In other state-based news, Montana will now allow patients to try any experimental treatment that has gone through a Phase 1 clinical trial.
👀 What we’re watching: An update on the political situation in Poland: the results of the presidential election are in, and unfortunately, it is not good news. The winner will make it difficult to reform the country’s democratic systems, after they were weakened by the previous ruling party.
💡 Editor’s pick: The first new non-opioid painkiller for acute pain in 20 years came to market in January. The New Yorker details the scientific research that led to it, a journey that reaches from street performers in Pakistan who can’t feel pain to a curious neighborhood in Alabama whose residents are hyper-sensitive to mild heat.
TPN Member Originals
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- The flashing signals that I just saw in Israel | NYT ($) | Thomas L. Friedman
- On self-care in difficult times, and the value of hope | Lucid | Ruth Ben-Ghiat
- The court rulings on Trump’s tariffs | Tangle | Isaac Saul
- Ukraine’s daring | Diane Francis | Diane Francis
- A way to understand Pope Leo XIV’s mission of love | The Atlantic ($) | Arthur C. Brooks
- Can Pope Leo XIV heal the Church—and his own country? | GZERO | Ian Bremmer
- The Trump world idea that’s pushed me over the edge | NYT ($) | David Brooks
- Washington and the New Energy Revolution: How’s it going? | Faster, Please! | James Pethokoukis
- Politicians need to take AI progress seriously | Slow Boring | Matthew Yglesias
- Rich kids | No Mercy/No Malice | Scott Galloway
Progress, classical liberalism, and the New Right | Human Progress | Tyler Cowen